Payout Ratios And Strategies for Playing Games of Chance

Intro to Playing Casino Games of Chance
Ever wondered how payout ratios and variance influence your luck in games of chance?
Our expert team has made an comprehensive overview of casino payout ratios and variance. By reading this guide, you can enhance your gameplay experience, and win more in the long run.
While many turn to this guide for insights on casino games, the strategies outlined can also be helpful for non-gambling games. Understanding these principles is crucial whether you’re betting real money or just playing for fun. For those who gamble, grasping these concepts can minimize losses, thereby optimizing winning potential.
Dive in to learn how the house edge operates and how variance influences probability. You’ll find these strategies particularly relevant to games such as:
- Slots 🎰
- Blackjack 🃏
- Roulette 🎡
- Dice 🎲
- Baccarat 🏦
- Poker ♠️
Table of Contents
ToggleThe Casino Always Has a Winning Edge

Every game has a house edge at both land-based and online casinos. The house edge is how casinos make a living. These establishments are businesses, and like all businesses, they aim to make a profit. Yet, the house edge varies depending on the game. So, if you enjoy gambling, learning as much as possible about the house edge and each game’s payouts can give you an advantage and impact how much you win.
So, How is the House Edge Determined (RTP)?
Casinos present the ratio of winning versus losing in various ways:
- RTP Percentage (Return to Player Percentage): is the percentage of the staked amount the players can expect to receive back over time. For example, an RTP of 97% implies a house edge of 3%.
- Casino House Edge Percentage: This is the percentage the casino is expected to win from each game. For instance, Blackjack has a house edge of around 0.5%, meaning the RTP is 99.5%.
- A Ratio of Winning: used in sports betting odds, and some casino games use a winning ratio of 3 to 1. But remember that the payout is always different from the odds of winning. For example, In European Roulette, you have a 1 in 37 chance of landing on a single number. Still, the payout is only 35 to 1 plus your original bet.
Math helps figure out these odds. Casinos ensure that they have a slight advantage when they set the odds.
Variance vs. Volatility in Gambling: What You Need to Know
Variance and volatility are closely related but not exactly the same. While both deal with risk and unpredictability in casino games, they describe different aspects of the gambling experience. Let’s break it down:
📊 Variance vs. Volatility in Gambling
✅ Variance – This refers to how much actual results can differ from expected outcomes over time. It measures risk by looking at the range of potential payouts in a game.
- High-variance slots: You might win big, but wins happen less frequently (e.g., progressive jackpot slots).
- Low-variance slots: You win smaller amounts, but wins come more often (so you can play for longer periods).
✅ Volatility – While often used interchangeably with variance, volatility specifically refers to short-term fluctuations in results.
- High-volatility games: Expect big swings, including long losing streaks but large potential wins.
- Low-volatility games: More consistent payouts, but usually lower rewards per win.
📌 In short:
Variance is the statistical measure of risk, while volatility describes the real-world experience of streaks and swings in casino games.
Types of Variance & Volatility in Casino Games
Variance and volatility can be categorized in two main ways, though some players recognize a third:
- High-Volatility Games
- Low-Volatility Games
- Mid-Volatility Games (for those who differentiate three types)
Bet sizing is crucial in these games. As highlighted in the previous section about variance, every game has its upswings and downswings. Taking the coin flip as an example, a game of ‘heads’ or ‘tails’ shows that variance sometimes defies probability. Over time, however, probability will balance the results.
Given that the odds are 50/50, the coin flip can be considered a mid-volatility game.
🎰 High-Volatility Games: Risk & Reward
Imagine a game where for every dollar you play, you’re expected to get 98 cents back. This is called a Return to Player (RTP) of 98%. If it’s a slot game, you might win a lot of money during special bonus rounds, but win less money during regular play. These big wins don’t happen often, but they are possible.
Let’s say you play $10,000 in this game over a month. In theory, you should expect to get back about $9,800 because of the 98% RTP. But your actual winnings can vary a lot:
- Month 1: You might lose all $10,000.
- Month 2: You bet $10,000 again and win $14,600, making a $4,600 profit.
- Month 3: You bet $10,000 again and win $14,800, making a $4,800 profit.
Even though you lost everything in Month 1, over three months, you end up winning back almost all of your money. This shows how the game’s RTP and volatility work. It can be frustrating to lose a lot at first, but understanding these ups and downs can help you manage expectations.
🃏 Low-Volatility Games: Steady Play & Lower Risk
These games frequently return smaller amounts, reducing the risk to your bankroll compared to high-volatility games.
To illustrate, blackjack played using basic strategy is a low-volatility game. Typically:
- 45% of hands are won
- 48% result in a loss or a push
- 7% have other outcomes (mainly splits)
What’s the likelihood of losing five consecutive hands?
Using probability:
📌 0.48^5 = 0.012 or 1.2% chance
📊 Blackjack Losing Streak Probabilities %
Losing Streak | Probability (%) |
---|---|
Lose 1 hand | 52.6% |
Lose 2 hands in a row | 27.7% |
Lose 3 hands in a row | 14.6% |
Lose 4 hands in a row | 7.7% |
Lose 5 hands in a row | 4% |
Lose 6 hands in a row | 2.1% |
Lose 7 hands in a row | 1.1% |
Lose 8 hands in a row | 0.59% |
Lose 9 hands in a row | 0.31% |
In blackjack, a win typically doubles your stake. A losing streak of 3 or 4 hands at $5 per hand (resulting in a loss of about $20) is unlikely, occurring just 7.7% of the time.
However, should you lose nine hands consecutively—a rare 0.31% chance—you’ve only lost $45. With variance in mind, a recovery phase will eventually follow, allowing you to recoup a significant portion of losses.
🎯 How Variance & Volatility Influence RTP in Casino Games
Understanding the distinction between RTP (or house edge) and actual outcomes is essential.
For example:
- Roulette single-number bet: 1 in 37 chance of winning, but 50 spins might pass without hitting your number.
- 96% RTP Slot: A player who bets $100 could either lose half or win an extra 50% in one session.
📌 Probability isn’t a guarantee in the short term—variance always influences results.
RTP reflects the proportion of money returned over the long term, not the frequency of wins. Over an extended period, the 96% RTP should balance out, but achieving this balance can take years or even decades for some players.
🔍 Final Takeaway: Managing Variance & Volatility in Gambling
Variance and volatility are key to understanding casino games. They explain why:
✔ Players experience hot and cold streaks
✔ Some games feel riskier than others
✔ The casino always has a winning edge in the long run
📌 Before playing, choose games with variance levels that match your risk tolerance, and always gamble responsibly.
Understanding the House Edge/RTP in Roulette

Let’s take a closer look at roulette. When placing a ‘straight bet’ (a bet on a single number), you have a 1 in 37 chance of winning, given there are 37 numbers on a European roulette board (0-36). The casino offers odds of 35 to 1.
If you win, you’ll receive 35 times your wager and your original bet. For instance, a $1 bet would yield a $36 return, translating to a $35 profit. Here, the house edge is 2.7%, with an RTP of 97.3%.
For bets on odds/even, red/black, or high/low, if the ball settles on 0, it’s a loss for you. The corresponding RTP is calculated as 2 x 18 ÷ 37 = 0.973 or 97.3%. Subtracting this from 100% gives a house edge of 2.7%, not 2.5%, as mentioned.
However, roulette isn’t uniform across casinos. American Roulette, for instance, features both ‘0’ and ’00’, bringing the total numbers to 38 and altering the RTP to 94.7% and a house edge of 5.3%.
Tip Don't Play American Roulette
As you can see from the information above, European Roulette, which features just a single ‘0’, offers better odds than American Roulette. Therefore, if you have the choice, you should only play European Roulette, as you will win more in the long run.
Determining the RTP/House Edge for Slot Machines

Slot machines operate on similar principles. Each reel is configured with a specified number of symbols, and the probability of symbol combinations aligns to favor the casino. This probability is represented as the RTP (Return to Player) While most land-based slots offer an RTP of 89% to 94%, online slots average is around 96.00%.
* RTPs can vary based on jurisdiction and specific games.
Tip Before Playing Online Slots
It can be a good idea to play slot games that have a higher RTP, you simply will win more in the long run by doing so. You can use our list of slots, which includes the RTP for each game from different providers, to see the differences. I always check the RTP before playing a slot game.
The House Edge/RTP in Blackjack

Blackjack is slightly more complex (also see the rules of blackjack) due to its multiple versions – generally, the house edge hovers around 0.5%, translating to an RTP of 99.5%.
However, the game’s odds can be influenced by numerous factors:
- Dealer’s action on 17 (hits or stands)
- Number of decks in use (from 1 to 8)
- Rules associated with splitting or doubling down
- Availability of bonus side bets
- Blackjack game variants
The Importance of Basic Strategy
While blackjack has a low house edge of 0.5%, you need to follow the basic blackjack strategy to achieve this. This strategy tells you the best actions to take based on your cards and the dealer’s visible card, like when to hit, stand, double down, or split. This can increase your chances of winning, but remember, luck still plays a part.
The Cons of Blackjack’s Bonus Side Bets
Tip Don't use Bonus Side Bets
Speaking of bonus side bets, they’re notably in the casino’s favor. So to optimize your potential winnings in blackjack, it’s best not to use these bets. I never do.
Applying the Power of Basic Strategy
While blackjack may offer a attractive house edge of just 0.5%, this figure is only attainable when employing the basic strategy. This strategy comprises a set of mathematical rules guiding players on how to respond based on their hand and the dealer’s upturned card.
In essence, the basic strategy offers a roadmap, indicating when to hit, stand, double down, split, etc., all grounded in mathematically validated probabilities that aim to enhance your chances of securing a win. Nevertheless, it’s vital to remember that variance can still influence outcomes in the game.
Understanding Game Payouts and Betting Systems

When engaging in games of chance, it’s vital to comprehend the concept of Return to Player (RTP) or House Edge.
For instance, Blackjack’s 0.5% house edge is applied to each hand played, and Roulette’s 2.7% house edge on a straight bet is for each wheel spin. However, this doesn’t equate to the casino’s profit over an entire gaming session.
Neglecting to use an efficient betting system (like forgoing basic strategy in Blackjack) can escalate the house edge, diminishing the player’s RTP. Sound judgment and recognizing opportunities are vital to a player’s success.
Betting systems serve a purpose: they mitigate errors made by those unfamiliar with the game’s nuances. At a minimum, utilizing a betting system allows you to play to the house edge rather than unwittingly increasing it.
Countering Variance with Betting Systems
While it might seem straightforward, one can’t overlook the influence of variance on the house edge or RTP. So this is where betting systems come into play, designed to counterbalance game variance.
Astute players distinguish between the RTP for each deal, roll, or spin and their overarching betting system. Essentially:
- RTP or House Edge is applied to each individual game against the house.
- Betting systems account for variance across an entire betting session.
Considerations When Using Betting Systems
Players might select games with low house edges or simply opt for their favorites, applying a system as they go. However, important considerations include:
- Anticipating the game’s variance potential.
- Implementing bet sizing strategies.
- Recognizing when to exit.
The Importance of Bet Sizing
Effective bet sizing is paramount in chance-based games. Its essence is in leveraging variance — anticipating both upswings and downswings. In any chosen system, bet sizing remains a strategic pillar, influenced both by experience and common sense.
For instance, discerning slot players might adjust their bet sizes based on perceived payout patterns. Or, in Roulette, after observing a series of black outcomes, a player might double down on red, banking on probability and variance.
Some systems have built-in bet sizing patterns, adjusting bets based on previous results. Familiar systems include the Martingale, Fibonacci, and Labouchere roulette systems.
Optimal Betting Systems
It’s crucial to differentiate between feasible and now-obsolete betting systems. For instance, while card counting in Blackjack was once a profitable system, it has largely been nullified by casinos’ countermeasures.
In essence, there are two principal optimal betting strategies:
- Those are elevating your RTP above 100%.
- Those are minimizing potential losses.
The first might lead to confrontation with casinos, while the second hinges on discipline — adhering to the system and understanding bet sizing adjustments during winning or losing streaks.
The Rise and Fall of Blackjack Card Counting
Card counting in Blackjack once tipped the scales from an RTP of 99.5% to over 102%. And this was possible because decks weren’t frequently shuffled, allowing players to adjust their bets based on the deck’s composition. However, casinos adapted by shuffling more frequently, nullifying card counting’s advantage.
Despite this, basic mathematical strategy in Blackjack remains a solid approach. Over time, by adhering to this strategy, a player can closely approach the game’s theoretical RTP.
Online Blackjack Card Counting
Online casinos use continuous shuffling, random number generators, and frequent reshuffles in live dealer games, making card counting ineffective by constantly refreshing the deck
Bankroll Management: Betting Wisely
- Starting with low bets and increasing them during favorable streaks.
- Reducing bets during consistent losses.
By understanding how variance and volatility affect games, players can manage their money better and have a more enjoyable gaming experience.
CONCLUSION
RTP is not fixed. By understanding concepts like variance, probability, volatility, and the RTP/house edge, and by employing strategies such as the basic Blackjack strategy, appropriate bankroll management and bet sizing, you can minimize long-term losses and even come out ahead.
Here’s a recap of these concepts:
- Variance/Volatility
- Probability
- RTP/house edge
- Strategic play
- Bankroll management
- Bet sizing
Many seasoned players, like myself, employ these concepts to extend our playtime in casinos. By playing high-RTP slots and using strategies that offer the best odds, players maximize their chances.
Remember to always play responsible.
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